A Former Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, Deputy Governor, Professor Kingsley Moghalu, has x-rayed the winning options for the four major contenders for the 2023 presidential election.
Goldennewsng reports that Moghalu who contested as a presidential aspirant in 2023, under, African Democratic Congress, ADC, said if the election holds, following security and economic challenges, the four major contenders will work harder to ensure winning.
We had reported that Peter Obi, Labour Party, LP, presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, presidential candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, All Progressive Congress, APC, presidential candidate, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPP, presidential candidate are the four major contenders of the February 2023 general election.
Moghalu in his analysis said while ethnicity will play a role in the coming 2023 general election, except for Peter Obi, who is sure of a larger control of the South-South and South-East, the other three candidates of Atiku, Tinubu and Kwankwaso have many hurdles in the build-up to the election.
In his analysis, Moghalu wrote: “The 2023 presidential election – if it holds, with a security/economic meltdown that’ll likely get worse before it can get better – is the first since 1999 that no one can say for sure who will win.
“The balance of forces represented by the four main contenders is intriguing and well dispersed. Atiku, Bola Tinubu, Peter Obi, and Kwankwaso all have strong followings for different reasons.
“If Kwankwaso goes all the way he will take away significant votes from APC in the core North, especially North West.
“Peter Obi will likely take significant potential PDP votes in South-East, South-South and Christian North-Central. Don’t be fooled by Labour Party’s weak performance in Osun or its evident lack of structure. The movement is more about PO than Labour Party.”
“On ethnicity and religion options, Moghanu added, “Meanwhile a huge dose of religious sentiment has now been added to the ethnic one with Nigeria’s main ethnic tripod of Yoruba, Igbo and mainly Muslim core North all strongly represented in the line-up. Many Nigerians will vote across ethno-religious lines, especially the youth but, I predict, not enough to give any candidate a decisive advantage.
“Will Atiku, perhaps the most cosmopolitan politician of the old guard, win enough ethnic votes in the North to off-set what he might lose to Obi in the South where Atiku had more support than his northern home base in 2019?
“Can Obi crack the Northern “wall”? Will the core north vote for Asiwaju and his Muslim-Muslim ticket before the “son of the soil” Atiku?
“If Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso does a “Tambuwal” at the last minute in favour of Asiwaju, what happens? Perhaps most important, how many of the new 12 million registered voters will actually vote, and for who?”
Kingsley Moghalu who contested the 2019 general election under Young Progressive Party, YPP, a political economist could be credited as one of the first technocrats to have consistently contested for the position of the president under a small political platform.
