As of today, Monday, July 21, 2025, the Naira is trading at ₦1,532.34 per dollar in the official Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM). This reflects a slight depreciation from last week’s rate of ₦1,530.25, highlighting ongoing fluctuations in Nigeria’s FX landscape.
On the parallel market, also known as the black market, the naira is currently exchanging between ₦1,535 and ₦1,544 per dollar, depending on location and volume of transaction.
Last week, the naira showed signs of recovery, briefly hitting a four-month high of ₦1,518.88 on the first trading day. However, the gains were short-lived as it slipped midweek to ₦1,533.11 before closing at ₦1,532.34 by Friday. The highest rate recorded during the week was ₦1,538, while the lowest was ₦1,515.
Naira Ends Week Weaker at ₦1,532.34/$ Despite Strong Start and CBN Interventions
The Nigerian naira slipped marginally against the US dollar last week, closing at ₦1,532.34/$ at the official market, a 0.14% week-on-week depreciation, despite beginning the week with a surge to a four-month high.
The local currency had opened the week strong at ₦1,518.88/$ but gradually lost momentum, dipping to ₦1,530.25/$ and later to ₦1,533.11/$ before settling at ₦1,532.34/$ by Friday. Throughout the week, the naira traded as high as ₦1,538/$ and as low as ₦1,515/$ at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM).
In the parallel market, the naira maintained a relatively tight trading band, fluctuating between ₦1,535/$ and ₦1,544/$, reflecting a mixed performance across market segments.
Despite the week’s outcome, analysts remain cautiously optimistic. Experts at Cowry Asset Management observed that the currency’s mixed performance pointed to ongoing imbalances in FX supply and demand. They noted that while the official market ended in negative territory, the parallel market saw a slight 0.06% appreciation.
“The divergent movements reflect ongoing supply-demand imbalances and the evolving FX liquidity landscape,” Cowry Asset stated in its report, adding that the naira could see further gains if Nigeria sustains improved oil production and elevated crude prices—both factors that increase dollar inflows and bolster the country’s reserves.
Fresh data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission revealed that daily crude oil production rose by 3.6% in June to 1.51 million barrels per day—meeting Nigeria’s OPEC quota for the first time in five months. This increase is attributed to enhanced security and operational stability in oil-producing regions.
Similarly, AIICO Capital reported that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) intervened multiple times in the FX market during the week. Dollar sales at strategic moments helped curb volatility, although the naira still lost 13.6 basis points week-on-week at the official market. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s external reserves climbed by $422 million to $37.85 billion, up from $37.43 billion the previous week.
Analysts believe the naira is likely to remain within its current range in the short term, thanks to improved FX liquidity and external buffers. However, all eyes are now on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which begins its meeting today, with critical implications for FX and interest rate policy.
Opinions remain divided over what direction the MPC should take. Some market watchers advocate a modest rate cut, citing falling inflation, a relatively stable currency, and signs of policy reform gains. Others caution that easing too soon could reverse recent progress, particularly with ongoing global risks and domestic food supply pressures.
“For now, traders are positioning around the edges, but the real signal will come from the tone of the communique,” Comercio Partners remarked, underscoring the market’s heightened anticipation.
As investors await policy cues, the fate of the naira in the weeks ahead will likely hinge on a delicate balance of fiscal discipline, monetary policy direction, and sustained momentum in oil exports.
